Information Model for Global Shipbuilding in the Period of 2016 – 2020

Abstract

This study explores the worldwide demand for the newly built ships from 2014 to 2017 and produces forecasts for the demands concerning the years 2018 and 2020, on the basis of mental and verbal insights into the global shipping market, theoretical aspects of the issue, and the selected variables (South Korea, China, Japan, Europe and the Rest of the World) of the information model for the global shipbuilding. The value of the variables for the year 2016 has been achieved by taking into account the synergistic effect of the percentage obtained per order books across the world, gross tonnage in 0,000 GT and the value of vessels in billion US$ for each selected variable. In the next stage these values have been quantified based on the mental and verbal insights into the scientific aspects of the global shipping market variables of the information model for the global shipbuilding in the years of 2018 and 2020. In this way, for the first time, the growth matrix has produced the values of the selected variables, i.e. the direct growth rates of the information model for the global shipbuilding for the period 2018-2020. The research has involved a combination of scientific methods, among which the most relevant are analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, descriptive, comparative, statistical and mathematical methods, method of model drawing (growth matrix), and methods of proving and refuting.